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Sunday, Oct 5th, 2008

NFL Preview - San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)

By Tony Moss, NFL Editor

(Sports Network) - Two weeks after stunning the New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins are looking to pull off what would be an equally impressive encore.

The San Diego Chargers will be the Week 5 opponent for the Fins, who will be looking to give head coach Tony Sparano and quarterback Chad Pennington their first home wins in Miami colors.

The Dolphins ended New England's NFL-record 21-game winning streak with style back in Week 3, handing the Patriots a 38-13 setback that was their most decisive in the seven-year history of Gillette Stadium.

Miami running back Ronnie Brown was the star of the show, rushing for a team- record four touchdowns and throwing a fifth to tight end Anthony Fasano while working frequently out of the "Wildcat" formation. The scheme saw the running back taking direct snaps from center, and clearly seemed to confound the highly-respected New England defense.

The Dolphins piled up 461 yards of total offense on the day, also scoring the franchise's first road victory since winning at Detroit on Thanksgiving of 2006.

Given the headline-grabbing nature of the victory, don't expect the Chargers to be caught off guard by Miami's approach.

San Diego has righted the ship following a disappointing 0-2 start, winning back-to-back games over the Jets (48-29) and Raiders (28-18) to pull within a game of the first-place Broncos (3-1) as Week 5 begins.

Norv Turner's club rebounded from a 15-0 deficit to outlast Oakland last week, with a 25-point fourth-quarter flurry helping the Bolts to even their record.

LaDainian Tomlinson carried 20 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns in the triumph, sealing the game with a 41-yard touchdown blast in the closing moments.

Tomlinson has four touchdowns in his past two games, and is tied for the NFL lead in that category (5) along with Brown, Tennessee's LenDale White, and Arizona wide receiver Anquan Boldin.

Adding to the good news for San Diego this week is the return of starting inside linebacker Stephen Cooper, who has finished serving a four-game NFL suspension for use of a banned stimulant.

SERIES HISTORY

The Dolphins lead the all-time series with the Chargers, 11-10, breaking a deadlock in the series with a 23-21 road win when the teams last met, in 2005. Miami is 6-0 against San Diego since the Bolts last won a game in the series, a 1993 home triumph that came by a 45-20 count.

The postseason series between the Chargers and Dolphins is also tied, at two games apiece. San Diego won AFC Divisional Playoff contests over Miami in 1981 and 1994, while the Dolphins were winners over the Bolts in a 1982 AFC Second- Round Playoff and a 1992 AFC Divisional Playoff.

Including playoffs, San Diego is 0-5 in Miami since last winning there in 1981. The Chargers last won a regular season game in south Florida in 1980.

Turner is 1-1 in his career against the Dolphins, including a win while with the Redskins (1999) and a loss while with the Raiders (2005). Sparano will be meeting both Turner and the Chargers for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL

Tomlinson (296 rushing yards, 4 TD, 10 receptions) is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and has yet to come up with any of the huge statistical games that have long been his calling card, but the future Hall-of-Famer has shown in the team's last two wins that he remains very much capable of hitting the home run. A nagging toe injury limited both his touches and effectiveness in September, but improving health figures to yield more prolific results. Backup Darren Sproles (106 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 1 TD) has certainly shown his value as a change-of-pace over the last month. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers (1024 passing yards, 10 TD, 4 INT) has quietly been very good, posting an outstanding 109.8 passer rating and helping top targets Antonio Gates (15 receptions, 3 TD), Chris Chambers (8 receptions, 4 TD), and Vincent Jackson (15 receptions, 1 TD) be productive. Chambers, a 2001 second-round Draft choice of the Dolphins and member of the Miami roster from 2001 through 2007 will be out to prove something to the team that traded him midway through last season. A quality San Diego o-line has surrendered six sacks thus far.

Despite the presence of Tomlinson and Sproles, San Diego might be wise to attack Miami through the air. The Dolphins rank just 26th in NFL passing defense (227.3 yards per game) despite facing the fifth-fewest pass attempts in the league, and are allowing opponents to complete a gaudy 68.7 percent of their throws. A lack of playmakers in the secondary has been an Achilles' heel for Paul Pasqualoni's unit, though safety Yeremiah Bell (24 tackles) does lead the club in tackles. The defensive star for Miami through three games has been outside linebacker Joey Porter (14 tackles), who had three sacks in New England and ranks among NFL leaders with five on the year. The Dolphins are a solid 10th against the run (90.3 yards per game), with inside linebacker Channing Crowder (23 tackles) and tackle Randy Starks (8 tackles, 1 sack) ranking among the club's biggest impact players at the point of attack. Starks, the former Tennessee Titan, had a pair of tackles and Miami's first interception of the year against the Patriots.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

Brown's (161 rushing yards, 5 TD, 6 receptions) performance in the New England win not only got Miami in the win column for the first time, but was also great news for the No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 Draft. Questions had lingered about Brown's health in the wake of a season-ending knee injury a year ago, but his play versus the Pats put those murmurs to rest. The Auburn product should get a majority of the backfield touches on Sunday, with Ricky Williams (150 rushing yards, 7 receptions) getting a shot as well. Quarterback Chad Pennington (589 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) was an efficient 17-of-20 for 226 yards in New England, and once again stayed away from major mistakes. Wideouts Ted Ginn, Jr. (8 receptions), and Greg Camarillo (11 receptions) played well in the win, but tight ends Fasano (11 receptions, 2 TD) and David Martin (8 receptions, 1 TD) have been the club's most consistent pass- catchers. A mediocre Miami line has surrendered six sacks to date.

Slowing Brown and the Miami running game is going to start up front for the Chargers defense, where the team's three-man line of nose tackle Jamal Williams (9 tackles) and ends Igor Olshansky (11 tackles, 1 sack) and Luis Castillo (12 tackles, 1.5 sacks) come off a huge game in Oakland. The trio combined for 18 tackles and two sacks in the win, helping limit the Raiders' rushers to 72 yards on 23 carries (3.1 yards per rush). The return of Cooper at one of the inside linebacker slots should help immensely as well. The Maine product led the Bolts with 108 stops last season. San Diego ranks last in the league in pass defense (276.2 yards per game), but has also proven capable of coming up with the big play. The Chargers had six sacks of Oakland's JaMarcus Russell last Sunday, including one-and-a-half from outside linebacker Shaun Phillips (19 tackles, 2.5 sacks). San Diego has five interceptions on the year, including two to cornerback Antonio Cromartie (18 tackles) and one each for rookie corner Antoine Cason (19 tackles) and blossoming safety Eric Weddle (29 tackles).

FANTASY FOCUS

After a slow start that included a bout with a toe problem, Tomlinson is back to proving why he's an annual No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts. Even when he doesn't run for a ton of yards, the San Diego offense often gets Tomlinson in position to score. Rivers, Gates, and kicker Nate Kaeding are all must-starts as well, and Chambers and Jackson will probably offer you something if you give them the nod. The San Diego defense should be started on a matchup-by- matchup basis, and a Miami team that doesn't turn the ball over a ton might inspire you to bench them.

Brown made fantasy owners who sat him in Week 3 pay dearly, though his multiple-touchdown days are going to be few and far between this year. He's worth starting in any event, and Ricky Williams probably deserves to take a seat. Pennington and any of his targets are not worthy of starting status (except perhaps Fasano, if you're desperate), nor is the Miami defense. Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter has just two field goals though his first three games.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Dolphins waited until Week 3 to unveil their offensive gimmicks, and while the altered scheme produced the desired results, you could certainly argue that Miami played its hand too early. With plenty of time to prepare, the Chargers are going to have the "Wildcat" scheme diagnosed six ways from Sunday, and once the Dolphins go into coordinator Dan Henning's more traditional playbook, they'll effectively lose their chance to win the game. The Fins don't have enough horses defensively to hold Rivers, Tomlinson, and the Chargers attack at bay for long, either. Miami may hang around for a spell, but will look a lot more like the team that lost the first two games than the one that won the third.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Chargers 23, Dolphins 13

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