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Saturday, Jan 12th, 2008

NFL Preview - Jacksonville (12-5) at New England (16-0)

By Tony Moss, NFL Editor

(Sports Network) - If the Jacksonville Jaguars are truly worthy of status among the NFL elite, they'll have a chance to prove as much on Saturday night.

The Jags will face arguably the tallest task in their franchise history on Saturday, when they take the Gillette Stadium field to face the mighty New England Patriots in an AFC Divisional Playoff.

Though Jacksonville might remain something of a mystery to the NFL-viewing public, New England's 2007 journey has been well-chronicled.

The Patriots, who have already achieved the first 16-0 regular season in league history, can on Saturday become just the second team in NFL annals to win their first 17 games of a campaign, joining the 1972 Super Bowl Champion Miami Dolphins.

The Jaguars will be up against both that potential piece of history, and New England's record-setting offense.

The Patriots set NFL marks for single-season points (589) and touchdowns (75) during 2007, while quarterback Tom Brady's 50 touchdown passes and wideout Randy Moss' 23 TD catches were also all-time records.

But, as Bill Belichick's team well knows, all of the above achievements are insignificant in a single-elimination playoff setting, and New England is undoubtedly taking Jacksonville, one of the league's hottest teams, quite seriously.

The Jaguars scored their first postseason win since 1999 last Saturday, defeating the Steelers, 31-29, in a thrilling AFC First-Round Playoff. With the win, Jacksonville became the first team in NFL history to prevail in Pittsburgh twice in one season, a mark the Jaguars pulled off during a four- week span.

Jack Del Rio's squad is 7-2 in its past nine games, with the only losses during that stretch a three-point setback at Indianapolis (28-25) on Dec. 2nd and a 42-28 loss at Houston in a Week 17 game during which the Jags rested many of their starters.

Jacksonville has now scored 24 or more points in 11 consecutive games since a 29-7 loss to Indianapolis on Oct. 22nd.

SERIES HISTORY

The Patriots and Jaguars have met three times in the playoffs, with New England holding a 2-1 edge there. The Patriots were 28-3 winners in a 2005 AFC First-Round Playoff; New England scored a 20-6 home victory in the 1996 AFC Championship; and the Jaguars earned their only meaningful win against the Patriots in their history with a 25-10 home win in a 1998 AFC First-Round Playoff.

New England is 4-0 against Jacksonville in regular season games all-time, including a 24-21 win when the teams last met, in Florida in Week 16 of the 2006 season. The Jaguars are 0-2 in regular season games played in New England, with those defeats coming in 1996 and 2003.

Belichick is 3-2 against the Jaguars, with both losses dating back to the 1995 season, when he served as head coach in Cleveland. Jacksonville's Del Rio is 0-3 against both Belichick and the Patriots in his career as a head coach.

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

The vaunted Jacksonville running game mustered 135 yards in last week's win over Pittsburgh, though rushers Fred Taylor (16 carries, 48 yards, 1 TD) and Maurice Jones-Drew (8 carries, 29 yards, 1 TD) did not exactly run wild. In fact, the Jags' top rusher was quarterback David Garrard (5 carries, 58 yards), who did the bulk of his damage on a back-breaking 32-yard run in the game's waning moments. Jones-Drew's biggest offensive play came through the air, when he took a dump-off pass from Garrard 43 yards to the house to stake the Jags to a 21-10 lead late in the second quarter. Jacksonville ranked No. 2 in NFL rushing offense (149.4 yards per game) during the regular season behind the work of Taylor (1202 rushing yards, 5 TD) and Jones-Drew (768 rushing yards, 9 TD, 40 receptions).

Garrard notched his first career playoff win against Pittsburgh, though his personal passing day was one of his weakest of the campaign. The East Carolina product completed just 9-of-21 passes for 140 yards with two interceptions and four sacks absorbed in the contest. Wideouts Ernest Wilford (2 receptions, 29 yards), Reggie Williams (2 receptions, 23 yards), and tight end Marcedes Lewis (2 receptions, 16 yards) were Garrard's most frequent targets but did not register a major impact. During the regular season, Garrard (2509 passing yards, 18 TD, 3 INT) was third in the NFL in passer rating (102.2) behind Brady and the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger, while Wilford (45 receptions, 3 TD) led the team in catches and Williams (38 receptions, 10 TD) in TD receptions.

The Patriots' defensive reputation has taken something of a hit during the second half of the season, as teams like the Eagles (28 points scored), Ravens (24), and Giants (35) were able to find holes in the team's defense and put up significant scoring totals. Keeping Jacksonville from moving the ball on the ground figures to be the chief directive for New England, which was 10th in the league in rushing defense (98.2 yards per game) but also ranked near the bottom of the league with 4.4 yards allowed per carry. The three-man line of Vince Wilfork (48 tackles, 2 sacks) at nose tackle and Richard Seymour (23 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Ty Warren (53 tackles, 4 sacks) on the ends will look to set the tone against Taylor and Jones-Drew, with inside linebackers Junior Seau (74 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT) and Tedy Bruschi (92 tackles, 2 sacks) the key members of the second line of defense.

Garrard will have to avoid mistakes against a New England defense that ranked second in the NFL in sacks (47) and top 10 in takeaways (31) during the regular season. Outside linebackers Mike Vrabel (77 tackles, 12.5 sacks) and Adalius Thomas (78 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 INT) are both dangerous coming off the edge, and end Jarvis Green (39 tackles, 6.5 sacks) is adept as a situational pass rusher. The secondary possesses a number of playmakers, most notably Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel (44 tackles, 6 INT) and veteran safety Rodney Harrison (68 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT).

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

Brady's 12-2 career playoff record is nearly as celebrated as his amazing 2007 season, but this will be the recently-named MVP's first postseason foray with his new arsenal of receivers. Moss (98 receptions), who has nine touchdowns in eight career playoff games, will be appearing in the postseason for the first time since his Vikings lost to the Eagles in a 2004 NFC Divisional Playoff. Wes Welker (112 receptions, 8 TD), meanwhile, the NFL's co-leader in receptions during the regular campaign, will be suiting up for a playoff game for the first time in his four-year NFL career. The third member of the first- year New England receiving triumvirate is Donte' Stallworth (46 receptions, 3 TD), who had six catches for 141 yards and two TDs in a pair of playoff appearances with the Eagles last season. Finally, don't overlook holdover Jabar Gaffney (36 receptions, 5 TD), who came up huge in last year's postseason with 21 catches, 244 yards, and two touchdowns in a three-game span.

While most of Jacksonville's attention will likely be drawn to the record- setting Patriots passing attack, the defense can't ignore a running game that ranked a respectable 13th in NFL rushing offense (115.6 yards per game) during the regular season. Running back Laurence Maroney (835 rushing yards, 6 TD) was particularly effective late in the season, rushing for 306 yards with four touchdowns in his final three games. Maroney struggled in the 2006 playoffs, mustering only 87 yards on 31 carries (2.8 yards per attempt) with one touchdown in three games. Veteran Kevin Faulk (265 rushing yards, 47 receptions, 1 TD), who has appeared in 13 postseason games with New England since 2001, will continue to replace Maroney in certain situations.

Brady and company should make plenty of gains against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 337 aerial yards to Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh attack last Saturday, though New England will also have to be wary of the Jags' playmaking ability in that arena. Jacksonville sacked Roethlisberger six times, with six different players getting to the QB, and intercepted him on three occasions. Former Pro Bowl cornerback Rashean Mathis was the day's defensive star, picking off a pair of errant tosses, including one he returned 63 yards for a second-quarter interception. End Paul Spicer, who led the Jags in sacks (7.5) during the regular season and got to Roethlisberger once last week, will likely be a target for both New England and its fan base after making some incendiary comments about the team's "Spygate" incident earlier in the year.

Jacksonville shut down the Pittsburgh run last week, allowing three Steelers running backs to amass just 30 yards on 22 combined carries. Strong safety Sammy Knight and linebacker Justin Durant were extremely active against the run, combining for 25 stops, while LBs Daryl Smith and Clint Ingram tallied six stops each. Injuries at the point of attack could hamper the ground- stopping efforts this week, as tackles Grady Jackson (knee) and John Henderson (hamstring) are both regarded as questionable and middle linebacker Mike Peterson (hand) will miss his eighth straight game. The team is already without former Pro Bowl tackle Marcus Stroud (ankle) was placed on season- ending injured reserve in mid-December. The Jaguars ranked 11th in NFL rushing defense (100.3 yards per game) during the regular season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Jacksonville kicker Josh Scobee was one of last week's heroes thanks to his 25-yard game-winning field goal in Pittsburgh, though he also missed a 46-yard try earlier in the game. Scobee was 12-of-13 on field goals during the regular season. Rookie punter Adam Podlesh, who struggled at times during his initial campaign, averaged 50 yards on four punts in his first career playoff contest.

The ever-dangerous Jones-Drew set up Jacksonville's first touchdown against Pittsburgh with a dazzling 96-yard return down to the Steelers 1-yard line. Dennis Northcutt averaged over 10 yards on his three punt returns. The Jaguars did not allow any big plays in the return game last week, but are just two weeks removed from allowing two kickoff returns for TDs to Houston's Andre' Davis.

Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski (21-24 FG) was accurate all season, though due in large part to the team's offensive proficiency, he wasn't asked to make many deep kicks (just 3-of-5 on field goals of 40 yards or longer). The second-year-pro was among league leaders with 15 touchbacks on the season, however. In the punting game, former Jaguar Chris Hanson (41.4 avg.) worked infrequently during the regular season, with his 44 boots ranking 32nd among NFL punters.

Welker (10.0 avg.) handled most of New England's punt returns during the regular season, but could defer to veteran Troy Brown (9.2 avg.) in order to concentrate on offense during the playoffs. Two different Patriots - cornerback Ellis Hobbs (26.0 avg.) and reserve d-back Willie Andrews (37.3 avg.) - brought back kickoffs for touchdowns during the year. Andrews was inactive due to an elbow injury in Week 17 and is questionable for Saturday.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

In some ways this figures to be the Patriots' toughest test of the 2007 season to date, as Jacksonville is a red-hot club with brimming confidence that expects to come out of Gillette Stadium with a win. The Jaguars have the ability to stay in this game, thanks to a run game that could give New England problems, a pass rush that will get after Brady, and an underrated secondary that could slow the Patriots' receivers better than some. At the same time, you have to wonder whether Jacksonville is going to play its best game just seven days after a physical date with Pittsburgh, and whether what will be the Jags' fifth road trip in the past seven weeks is going to catch up with them at some point. It's going to take a perfect game for Jacksonville to knock off fresh, rested, and (let's not forget) unbelievably talented New England, and Jacksonville doesn't have a perfect game in them at this stage.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 27, Jaguars 17

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