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Saturday, Jan 5th, 2008

NFL Preview - Jacksonville (11-5) at Pittsburgh (10-6)

By Tony Moss, NFL Editor

(Sports Network) - The Jacksonville Jaguars will be out to accomplish a unique first on Saturday night at Heinz Field, when Jack Del Rio's team faces the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC First-Round playoff matchup.

Jacksonville, which scored a 29-22 win in the Steel City back in Week 15, will be vying to become the first visiting team in NFL history to win in Pittsburgh twice in the same campaign.

Only two previous teams have had a chance to pull off the feat, but both the 1978 Houston Oilers and 2001 Baltimore Ravens lost playoff games in Pittsburgh after winning there during the regular season.

The AFC North Champion Steelers will be attempting to both avoid that piece of history and right a ship that has drifted off course in recent weeks.

After starting the year at 7-2, Mike Tomlin's club was just 3-4 in its final seven regular season games, a stretch that included losses to the hapless Jets and Ravens.

Injuries to key players like running back Willie Parker (broken leg) and defensive end Aaron Smith (biceps) were viewed as having an impact on that less-than-stellar stretch, and injury concerns continue to cast a pall over the team as it embarks on its first postseason game since winning Super Bowl XL roughly 23 months ago.

In addition to Parker and Smith, the Steelers will be without their top two left tackles, Marvel Smith (back) and Max Starks (knee), when they take the field on Saturday.

Jacksonville doesn't have the history of its Black and Gold counterpart, but the Jaguars do seem to be playing from a position of greater strength at this moment.

Del Rio's squad went 6-2 in the season's second half, with the only losses during that stretch a three-point setback at Indianapolis and last week's road defeat to Houston in a game that saw many of Jacksonville's key players sit out in preparation for the playoffs.

Many league observers consider the Jaguars, who last won a playoff game in 1999, to be among the NFL's most dangerous postseason participants, a reputation they will look to earn when they play in one of the league's most difficult road venues on Saturday.

SERIES HISTORY

Jacksonville leads its all-time series with Pittsburgh, 11-8, including the aforementioned 29-22 win at Heinz Field in Week 15. The Jaguars have won three straight in the series since the Steelers scored a 17-16 win in Jacksonville during the 2004 campaign. Jacksonville is 2-0 in the Steel City since last losing there, 20-7, in 2001.

Del Rio is 3-1 against the Steelers, while Pittsburgh's Tomlin is 0-1 against both Del Rio and Jacksonville as a head man.

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

Jacksonville's offensive approach on Saturday night won't exactly be a state secret, as a team that was No. 2 in NFL rushing offense (149.4 yards per game) will look to establish the ground game against a Pittsburgh defense that was gutted for 224 running yards when these teams met in Week 15. The 1-2 punch of Fred Taylor (1202 rushing yards, 5 TD) and Maurice Jones-Drew (768 rushing yards, 9 TD, 40 receptions) has been excellent all season, with Taylor exploding for five consecutive 100-yard games before being rested by Del Rio against Houston last Sunday. The veteran's incendiary remarks about the playing surface at Heinz Field earlier in the week should make him something of a target for both the Steelers defense and the team's loyal fan base on Saturday.

Jacksonville's aerial attack is less heralded than the running game, but quarterback David Garrard (2509 passing yards, 18 TD, 3 INT) has been among the league's most efficient passers all season. Garrard, who will be making his first career playoff start, compiled a passer rating of 102.2 that was third in the league behind only Tom Brady (117.2) and Ben Roethlisberger (104.1). Wideouts Reggie Williams (38 receptions, 10 TD), Ernest Wilford (45 receptions, 3 TD), and Dennis Northcutt (44 receptions, 4 TD), all of whom had touchdown catches against Pittsburgh last time out, have been the team's most reliable deep options. Tight end Marcedes Lewis (37 receptions, 2 TD) has been another middle-of-the-field threat for Garrard. The Jacksonville line allowed 31 sacks on the season, but none against Pittsburgh in Week 15.

Although the Steelers' struggles against the run have been evident in recent weeks, Jacksonville might seek to take some chances downfield against an injury-battered Pittsburgh secondary. The Black and Gold list four defensive backs - safety Troy Polamalu (knee), cornerbacks Deshea Townsend (foot), Bryant McFadden (ankle), and Allen Rossum (hamstring) - as questionable for Saturday night's contest. That situation will put additional pressure on defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's zone-blitz scheme to get to Garrard. Linebackers James Harrison (98 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 1 INT) and James Farrior (94 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 INT) have been the most reliable pass rushers for the Steelers this season. Pittsburgh ranked tied for dead last in the league in interceptions (11) during the regular season, with cornerback Ike Taylor's (80 tackles, 1 sack) three picks leading the squad.

After doing a good job stopping the run for much of the season, the reputation of the Steelers' front seven took a hit when it allowed an average of 164.7 ground yards over its final three games. Injuries to Aaron Smith and Polamalu (58 tackles), two of the team's best run-stoppers, had something to do with that trend. The play of veteran nose tackle Casey Hampton (33 tackles, 0.5 sacks) will be key to Saturday's effort, as will the tackling of inside linebackers Farrior and Larry Foote (81 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT).

WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL

The depleted state of the Pittsburgh running game could force the offense to go to a pass-heavy approach behind Roethlisberger (3154 passing yards, 32 TD, 11 INT). Two keys to the potential Saturday success of Roethlisberger, who set a franchise single-season mark for touchdown passes this season, will be the play of inexperienced left tackle Trai Essex and the ability of top wideout Hines Ward (71 receptions, 7 TD) to rebound from a persistent knee injury. Essex has made just four career starts since being drafted out of Northwestern in 2005, and will be trying to prop up a line that has allowed 47 sacks on the year, by far the highest total among 2007 playoff teams. Ward, who was named Super Bowl MVP in his last postseason game, turned in his lowest receiving yards total (732) since 2000 this year, and was limited to three catches for 27 yards against Jacksonville last month. Santonio Holmes (52 receptions, 8 TD) has supplanted Ward as the team's most reliable deep target, and tight end Heath Miller (47 receptions, 7 TD) remains a threat as well.

The Steelers ranked third in NFL rushing offense (135.5 yards per game) during the regular season, though most of that total can be attributed to Parker, who was leading the league in ground yards at the time of his Week 16 injury. The man tabbed to replace him, ex-Packer Najeh Davenport (499 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 7 TD), amassed just 27 yards on 12 carries in his first start of the year against Baltimore last Sunday. Rookie Gary Russell (21 rushing yards) and recently re-signed veteran Verron Haynes (1 reception) could garner some carries as well on Saturday. Of the three running backs currently on the Pittsburgh roster, Haynes has the most playoff experience. The Georgia product appeared in six postseason contests in 2004 and 2005, including Super Bowl XL. Davenport played in three playoff games as a member of the Packers in 2003 and 2004, carrying 21 times for 77 yards and a touchdown.

Attacking Roethlisberger and the makeshift Steelers pass protectors will likely be the chief directive for the Jacksonville defense on Saturday. The Jaguars dragged "Big Ben" down five times when the team visited Pittsburgh in Week 15, with ends Brent Hawkins (14 tackles, 3.5 sacks), Bobby McCray (18 tackles, 3 sacks), and Paul Spicer (34 tackles, 7.5 sacks) all finding their way to the sack column in that contest. At the same time, the Jaguars must be better on the back end, where they allowed Roethlisberger to throw three touchdown passes without an interception last month. Cornerback Rashean Mathis (58 tackles, 1 INT) and veteran strong safety Sammy Knight (93 tackles, 4 INT) lead the defensive backfield, which will be a man down on Saturday if rookie safety Reggie Nelson (63 tackles, 5 INT, 1 sack) can't shake off a thigh injury to crack the lineup. Nelson is regarded as questionable.

The Jaguars ranked a respectable 11th in the league against the run during the regular season (100.3 yards per game), but there are some strides to be made against them in that area. Jacksonville will definitely be without top defensive tackle Marcus Stroud (ankle), middle linebacker Mike Peterson (hand) could soon join Stroud on season-ending injured reserve, and Stroud fill-in Grady Jackson (9 tackles) is questionable for this week with a knee injury. Plus, though the Steelers were playing from behind for much of their Week 15 matchup with the Jags, Willie Parker still managed to amass 100 yards on just 14 carries. Jacksonville's most notable run-stuffers at the moment are tackle John Henderson (38 tackles) along with linebackers Daryl Smith (71 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Justin Durant (49 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT).

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Steelers' Jeff Reed (23-of-25 FG) was the NFL's most accurate kicker (15 or more kicks) in 2007, and his only miss at Heinz Field all year came in a quagmire against Miami on Nov. 26th. Reed also notched 10 kickoffs for touchbacks. Pittsburgh punter Daniel Sepulveda (42.4 avg.) has had an encouraging rookie season.

With Rossum (23.3 kickoff return avg., 1 TD, 6.4 punt return avg.) a question mark, Willie Reid (21.2 avg.) could handle kickoff returns for Pittsburgh. with Cedrick Wilson (3.0 avg.) on punt returns. Rossum's lone TD of the year came on a 98-yard return against the 49ers in Week 3.

Jacksonville kicker Josh Scobee (12-13 FG) was also accurate, and is 11-of-12 on field goals since returning in mid-November from a quadriceps injury that sidelined him for eight weeks. Scobee has 12 touchbacks in eight appearances. Jaguars punter Adam Podlesh (41.6) has struggled at times this season and mishandled two snaps against Pittsburgh in Week 15.

Jones-Drew (26.2 kickoff return avg., 1 TD) and Dennis Northcutt (9.2 punt return avg.) are the return men for the Jaguars. Jones-Drew had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against the Saints on Nov. 4th. The Jaguars allowed two kickoff returns for TDs to Houston's Andre' Davis last Sunday, but otherwise played decent special teams defense all year.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Steelers might not be in mid-season form at this moment, but you can hardly expect a franchise as proud as this one to go down before its home fans without a serious fight. Look for Pittsburgh to scratch and claw to stay in this game, with special teams making a key contribution to help out the depleted offensive and defensive units. In the end, however, look for Jacksonville to prevail. The Jaguars are simply too explosive and too confident at this stage to turn in another one-and-done in the playoffs. Taylor and Jones-Drew will help wear down the Steelers "D", with the running game providing a back-breaking big play in the fourth quarter.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 20, Steelers 16

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