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Saturday, Nov 17th, 2007

Mississippi State (6-4) vs. Arkansas (6-4)

FACTS & STATS: Site: War Memorial Stadium (53,727) -- Little Rock, Arkansas. Television: Local. Home Record: MSU 3-2, Arkansas 5-2. Away Record: MSU 3-2, Arkansas 1-2. Neutral Record: MSU 0-0, Arkansas 0-0. Conference Record: MSU 3-3, Arkansas 2-4. Series Record: Arkansas leads, 11-5-1.

GAME NOTES: SEC foes collide in Little Rock on Saturday afternoon, as the Arkansas Razorbacks entertain the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Mississippi State is eligible for bowl consideration, a major accomplishment considering the program has been down in recent years. The Bulldogs are 6-4 overall and 3-3 in SEC play, and their last two outings have resulted in wins. After cruising by Kentucky, MSU knocked off Alabama last weekend in a 17-12 final. Arkansas is 21-2 in games played in Little Rock since 1998, an obvious reason for confidence this week. The Razorbacks, like Mississippi State, are 6-4 this season and are also playing to improve their postseason prospects. The Hogs carried a three-game win streak into last weekend's clash with Tennessee, but that tilt resulted in a 34-13 defeat. Arkansas owns an 11-5-1 series lead over Mississippi State, including a 28-14 victory in last season's meeting.

Mississippi State did not put forth a strong offensive showing against Alabama last weekend. Of the two touchdowns that the Bulldogs scored in the contest, only one was generated by the offense. Anthony Dixon plunged into the end zone from three yards out in the third quarter, but that score capped just a 25-yard drive. It is quite surprising that the Bulldogs were able to win the game with only 215 total yards. Dixon only gained 84 yards on 26 carries, but his willingness to consistently pound the ball against the Alabama defensive front was impressive. Wesley Carroll completed only 9-of-21 passes for 100 yards with one interception, but he still goes down as the winning quarterback. The fact that MSU is 6-4 despite averaging only 22.1 ppg and 289.0 total ypg is surprising. The Bulldogs have scored 24 offensive touchdowns, 17 of which have come on the ground. Dixon leads the pack with 914 yards and 13 scores, but he is averaging 3.9 ypc. As for Carroll, he has completed only 53.2 percent of his passes with 802 yards in 10 games, six of which have been starts. Still, he has only thrown one interception, an obvious key to success.

Give a ton of credit to the Mississippi State defense for its play against Alabama last weekend. The play of the game was made by a Bulldog defender, as Anthony Johnson intercepted a pass and raced 100 yards for a touchdown. MSU limited 'Bama to four field goals, keeping the Crimson Tide out of the end zone for 60 minutes. The Bulldogs yielded only 274 total yards, and the pass defense was particularly stellar, holding Alabama to 16-of-35 passing for 121 yards with a pair of interceptions. Opponents are posting 23.9 ppg and 334.6 total ypg against Mississippi State, which has been fairly solid against both the run and the pass, especially in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have registered 22 takeaways, a fairly high total, but their sack total of 15 is low. Keep an eye on Titus Brown, as he has made 12 TFLs, including eight sacks.

Arkansas is averaging 38.3 ppg and 454.7 total ypg this season on the strength of one of the nation's premier ground attacks. The Razorbacks are gaining 297.0 ypg and a staggering average of 6.2 ypc, and there is absolutely no question that the team possesses the top tailback duo in college football. Darren McFadden finished second in the Heisman race as a sophomore last season, and he is again a major candidate as a junior. McFadden has run for 1,431 yards and 12 touchdowns to go along with a pair of touchdown passes. As for Felix Jones, the nation's most underrated and overshadowed player, he has racked up 1,032 yards and 11 touchdowns on less than half of the carries that McFadden has received. His 9.1 ypc average is downright staggering, and he is a dynamic kickoff returner as well, but Jones has a thigh injury that makes his status for the weekend questionable. Quarterback Casey Dick has been adequate, completing 54.9 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Arkansas only scored one offensive touchdown and finished with 289 total yards against Tennessee last weekend. The ground attack was completely shut down, as the Razorbacks posted 127 rushing yards on 36 attempts.

Arkansas has allowed 34 or more points in four of the 10 games this season, as the defense has been mightily inconsistent. The Razorbacks are yielding an average of 22.8 ppg and 338.0 total ypg, as there have been a few outstanding efforts by the defense as well. Considering that teams are averaging fewer than four yards per attempt on the ground, it is fair to say that the Hogs have done a decent job against the run. While Arkansas does have one more interception than touchdown passes allowed, the club is surrendering 12.1 yards per pass completion, so there have been some big plays made by foes through the air. Matt Hewitt paces Arkansas with 91 total tackles. The defense limited Tennessee to 279 total yards last weekend, but the Vols scored three offensive touchdowns.

Arkansas is the choice here, as the offense is unlikely to be shut down for a second straight week. The Razorbacks are tough to beat in Little Rock, and Mississippi State isn't good enough to do so.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 17

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