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Saturday, Nov 10th, 2007

(23) Virginia (8-2) at Miami-Florida (5-4)

GAME NOTES: Playing in their last-ever game in the Orange Bowl, the Miami- Florida Hurricanes host the 23rd-ranked Virginia Cavaliers for an ACC showdown. Virginia grinded out a 17-16 win over then 21st-ranked Wake Forest last weekend to catapult back into the national rankings. The Cavaliers currently stand at 19th in the BCS rankings. Since a season-opening loss at Wyoming, Virginia has gone on to win eight of nine, with the only loss a narrow defeat two weeks ago at NC State. Statistically, the Cavaliers do not dominate in any one particular area, but they depend on disciplined defense and a few key plays to win close games. Aside from a 44-14 trampling over Pittsburgh in late-September, Virginia has won all but one of its games by less than a touchdown, including five victories of two points or less. The Cavaliers run into another tough hurdle this weekend, facing an emotional Miami team that waves goodbye to the stadium the program has called home for 71 seasons and 468 games. Next year, the Hurricanes play in Dolphin Stadium. Though they suffered a tough 19-16 overtime loss to NC State last weekend, the Hurricanes are still in search of a victory that would make them bowl eligible for the 10th straight season.

The Cavaliers seem to be at their best late in tight games. "We've been here before, we can do this," has become the team's persona, as described by tight end Tom Santi after yet another one-point win last Saturday. Mikell Simpson's one-yard touchdown run (eerily similar to his one-yard plunge that beat Maryland in the final seconds two weeks ago) with 2:18 to play capped Virginia's win over Wake Forest. Week after week, the Cavs end up giving it- wasn't-pretty-but-we'll-take-it quotes following victories. And they're right; it hasn't been pretty, at least statistically. The Cavs rank 101st in the nation in total offense. But whatever they're putting in the water in Charlottesville, it has been working for the Cavaliers. As UVA coach Al Groh has said time and again, he'll take a win any day of the week. After all, the battle-tested Cavs find themselves atop the ACC's Coastal Division standings.

UVA defensive end Chris Long is enjoying a spectacular season, and he has been one of the main reasons the Cavaliers are in the hunt for an ACC title. A finalist for the Lombardi Award and the son of former NFL great Howie Long, the senior defensive end has been named the conference's Defensive Lineman of the Week twice in the last three weeks. He tied a career high last week with 10 tackles (two TFLs), also registering a sack and three quarterback hurries. He is fifth in the nation in sacks, averaging 1.2 per game. Behind Long's leadership, the UVA defense is yielding only 326 total yards per game and is giving up a hair less than 20 ppg. Obviously, the Cavs get after the quarterback, as they rank third in the conference in that department.

With the passing game lagging last weekend, Miami coach Randy Shannon kept the ball on the ground all game long -- literally. The Hurricanes ran the ball 60 times, as quarterback Kirby Freeman completed only one pass in the contest. Freeman, who stepped in for injured starter Kyle Wright, finished 1-of-14 for 84 yards and three interceptions. Kicker Daren Daly missed a pair of field goals, including a 27-yarder on Miami's first possession of overtime. Wright continues to be bothered by an ankle injury, though he is listed as probable for this week's bout. Miami needs desperately for Wright to step in for a passing offense that now ranks 108th in the nation (170 ypg). Wright hasn't looked all that good when he's played (177 ypg, nine TDs, nine INTs), but he at least gives the Hurricanes a viable option under center.

The Miami defense really didn't play all that poorly last weekend, holding NC State to one touchdown and forcing the Wolfpack to settle for four field goals. The Hurricanes held the NC State running game to 110 yards and an average of 3.1 ypc. Wolfpack quarterback Daniel Evans completed less than half his pass attempts and finished with 207 yards and no touchdowns. On the season, Miami ranks fourth in the conference in total defense, giving up 324 ypg. The Hurricanes are yielding an average of 21.33 ppg, which ranks seventh in the conference. Miami still boasts plenty of speed, especially on the defensive line, as four players have registered at least four sacks on the season. Senior linebacker Tavares Gooden leads the team with 83 tackles and three fumble recoveries.

All those rushing yards for Miami came against an NC State defense that ranks last in the ACC in stopping the run. The Hurricanes won't enjoy the same type of success against a much more formidable UVA front. When Miami does drop back to pass, figure on Chris Long to disrupt a play or two and perhaps cause a turnover with his relentless pressure.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Virginia 20, Miami-Florida 17

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