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Saturday, Nov 10th, 2007

(13) Michigan (8-2) at Wisconsin (7-3)

GAME NOTES: Running their home record since the start of the 2004 campaign to an eye-popping 25-1 will be difficult this weekend, as the Wisconsin Badgers welcome the 13th-ranked Michigan Wolverines to town for a pivotal Big Ten Conference affair. Since opening the 2007 slate a shocking 0-2, Lloyd Carr's Wolverines have reeled off eight straight victories and they are poised for a run at the Big Ten crown as they have just one game remaining on the regular season docket -- next week at home against No. 1 Ohio State. Michigan outlasted a pesky Michigan State squad last Saturday, 28-24. It was the most points surrendered by the Maize and Blue since allowing 39 to Oregon back in early September. Wisconsin is hoping to bounce back from last week's 38-17 loss at Ohio State as Bret Bielema's squad looks to go a game over .500 in conference play. The Badgers had won their previous two games, but have dropped three of their last five overall. Wisconsin has won 13 straight at Camp Randall Stadium, marking the third-longest home winning streak in program history. Michigan owns a commanding 48-11-1 lead in the all-time series with Wisconsin, including a 21-4-1 mark in games played in Madison. Seven of the last eight, 16 of the last 19, and 30 of the last 34 decision have fallen in favor of the Wolverines and Carr is 7-1 versus the Badgers during his time as Michigan's head coach.

Led by the talented three-headed monster of QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart and WR Mario Manningham, the Michigan offense has had very little trouble moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard this season. Henne is a 61.5 percent passer who averages 209.9 passing ypg and he has thrown 14 TD passes against only six INTs. His favorite target has been Manningham and he has 59 receptions for 949 yards and nine TDs. Adrian Arrington has also been a solid option in the UM aerial attack with his 49 grabs, 615 yards and five scores. As for Hart, the nation's third-leading ground gainer at the moment (148.5 ypg), he is just 133 yards shy of becoming only the fourth player in Big Ten history to rush for 5,000 yards. Hart has scored 12 rushing TDs and is averaging 5.5 ypc. Balance is the key to Michigan's success on offense this season, as the team is rushing for 193.1 ypg while passing for 214.0 ypg. In last week's narrow win over Michigan State, Henne threw a school-record-tying four TD passes, two of which went to Manningham, who finished with eight catches for 129 yards. Meanwhile, Hart logged the fourth 100-yard rushing game in his career versus the Spartans, tallying 110 yards on 15 carries.

The Michigan defense prides itself on limiting success on the ground, with foes averaging just 3.7 ypc and scoring a total of 10 TDs in 10 games. Equally frustrating for opponents, the airways have been tough to navigate as well (186.1 ypg). The Wolverines have certainly made their share of big plays on the defensive side of the ball, as the team is credited with 32 sacks and 27 turnovers. Acting as if he knows the play ahead of time, LB Shawn Crable has a staggering 22.5 TFLs (second-most nationally), and his 67 total stops matches Brandent Englemon for the club lead. Safety Jamar Adams paces the team in INTs (three) and PBUs (12). Adams led the Wolverines with a career-best 14 tackles in last week's win over Michigan State, notching one of his picks along the way. The UM defense has started slow at times this season, yielding 121 combined points over the first two quarters compared to 71 points over the final two quarters. Last week, the opposite was true as the Spartans scored just three points in the first half before making a game of it with 21 in the second.

Much like their counterparts in this contest, the Badgers have had little trouble producing offensively, averaging 28.8 points and 404.7 total yards per contest. With RB P.J. Hill leading the way, Wisconsin is churning out 186.1 ypg on the ground and has scored 21 of its 35 TDs that way. Hill is over 1,000 yards for the season (1,066) and has scored 14 rushing TDs. He has eclipsed the 100-yard plateau a total of 22 times in his career, including five times this season. When the Badgers decide to air it out, it is QB Tyler Donovan who gets the call and he has responded by hitting nearly 60 percent of his throws for 209.3 ypg with 14 TDs and nine INTs. The team's top option down field has been TE Travis Beckum, who has 62 grabs for 765 yards and four TDs. To further demonstrate Beckum's value, the next three guys on the team's receiving list have a combined 69 catches. The Badgers are one of the more efficient teams in not only the conference, but the country as well as evidenced by the 47 percent clip they are converting their third down opportunities. The UW offense amassed just 281 yards in last week's loss to the top-ranked Buckeyes, of which only 12 came on the ground. Donovan threw for 238 yards and two TDs, with Beckum finishing with 140 receiving yards and a score.

Opponents are scoring just over 22 ppg against the Badgers, utilizing the run for 148.1 ypg and the pass for another 190.3 ypg. Over the last three games, the UW defense has tightened the reins considerably with regard to the pass, allowing a total of 391 passing yards (130.3 per outing). Nick Hayden, who has 40 total tackles on the year, made nine stops in last week's loss to Ohio State, and has turned up the heat in recent weeks by logging four sacks in the last six games. Overall, the Badgers have been credited with 24 sacks this season as part of 60 TFLs. Jonathan Casillas continues to pace the club with 71 tackles, while Matt Shaughnessy has made 11 of his 39 stops behind the line of scrimmage. The Badgers gave up 211 yards on the ground and another 166 through the air to the Buckeyes last weekend, permitting the home team 28 points in the second half, 21 of which came in the final frame. In addition to the effort put forth by Hayden, Deandre Levy had two TFLs to raise his season total to nine.

Michigan is the better team here, but Wisconsin isn't far behind and has the luxury of playing this one in front of the hometown faithful. That said, expect the Wolverines' multi-faceted offense to take control late and help the squad to victory, setting up next week's much-anticipated showdown with top-ranked Ohio State.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 23

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