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Saturday, Nov 3rd, 2007

Texas Tech (6-3) at Baylor (3-6)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Floyd Casey Stadium (50,000) -- Waco, Texas. Television: None. Home Record: Texas Tech 4-1, Baylor 2-2. Away Record: Texas Tech 2-2, Baylor 1-4. Neutral Record: Texas Tech 0-0, Baylor 0-0. Conference Record: Texas Tech 2-3, Baylor 0-5. Series Record: Series is tied, 32-32-1.

GAME NOTES: The Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Baylor Bears both seek to put a stop to their respective losing streaks, when they meet up in Waco for a Big 12 bout. Texas Tech comes into the game with the nation's top-ranked offense, but the Red Raiders want only to rebound from last weekend's 31-26 loss to Colorado. It was the second straight loss for the Red Raiders, who were on the wrong end of a 41-10 trouncing at the hands of Missouri two weeks ago. Playing against a struggling Baylor team, the Red Raiders can ill-afford to look ahead, as they play their final two games against Texas and Oklahoma. Across the field on the other sideline, Baylor is looking to erase the memory of its 51-13 loss to Kansas State a week ago. For the Bears, the loss was their fifth straight, and they've yet to win a Big 12 game this season. During the skid, Baylor has been outscored by an average margin of 43-13. The head-to-head series is tied, 32-32-1, although Texas Tech has won each of the last 11 meetings.

By now it is no secret to even the casual college football fan; Texas Tech can air it out and put up points in bunches. Averaging a whopping 548 total yards per game, the Red Raiders boast the nation's top offense in terms of total offense and passing offense (481.22 ypg). They are scoring nearly 43 ppg, which ranks fourth in the nation and second in the conference behind Oklahoma. Under head coach Mike Leach's spread offense, short passing plays serve as run plays, so therefore the Tech ground game has produced a minimal amount of yardage on the season (66.78 ypg). Although there are 11 guys on the field who make the offense go, two players at the skill positions have been getting all the accolades. Second-year quarterback Graham Harrell is completing 72.8 percent of his passes and is averaging 442.1 passing yards per game. He has chucked up 35 touchdowns, though he has thrown four interceptions in each of the last two games. His favorite target is freshman Michael Crabtree, who leads the nation in catches (100), yards (1,451) and touchdowns (18). The rookie sensation has already set NCAA freshman records for receiving yards and touchdowns.

Texas Tech's best strength on defense is the offense's ability to score lots of points and take opposing offenses out of their game plan. Once Texas Tech grabs an early lead and forces the opposition to drop back and throw it, the Red Raiders can pin their ears back and go after the quarterback. In the last two games, however, that hasn't happened, and the Texas Tech defense has been exposed. For one, the Red Raiders are not very good at stopping the run (174.67 ypg allowed on the ground). Last week, Colorado racked up 217 yards on the ground, averaging 4.9 ypc. One week prior, Missouri piled up 212 yards and three rushing touchdowns, averaging 4.2 ypc. Although Baylor by no means boasts a dominant rushing attack, Texas Tech's top priority moving ahead will be stopping the run.

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Bears, who have scored more than one touchdown in a game only once since their last win, which now seems like a really long time ago. The area that has most plagued the Bears has been the lack of a running game, as they rank 117th in the nation in that department. And while Baylor ranks 14th in the nation with 287 passing yards per game, that statistic can mostly be attributed to the fact that the Bears are almost always playing from behind, and really have no choice but to air it out. Playing against a Kansas State defense that had just given up 329 rushing yards against Oklahoma State the week prior, the Bears could not take advantage, and ran for just 13 yards while committing seven turnovers.

Largely because of the ineffectiveness of the offense, and also because of an inordinate number of turnovers, Baylor's defense has often found itself in less than ideal situations. But even when they've had the whole field at their backs, the Bears have simply not been able to stop opposing offenses with any consistency. Baylor ranks in the bottom third of the nation in both scoring defense (34.33 ppg) and total defense (433.11 ypg). Additionally, the Bears are a minus-1.56 in turnover margin. Last week, Kansas State churned out 208 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, in addition to another 255 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Moving on to the final portion of the schedule, there will not be any quick fix for the Bears. Rather, the coaching staff will continue to get the young guys much needed game experience in hopes that it pays off down the road.

An explosive offense versus a helpless defense; on paper, this game has the potential to be non-competitive by halftime. But keep in mind, Harrell's confidence is a bit shaken, having thrown eight picks in the last two games -- both losses. Baylor has been known to sneak up on a few teams in recent seasons, and one has to wonder whether Texas Tech will be looking ahead to Texas and Oklahoma.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Texas Tech 34, Baylor 20

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