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Saturday, Nov 3rd, 2007

(25) Clemson (6-2) at Duke (1-7)

GAME NOTES: With their offense now firing on all cylinders, the 25th-ranked Clemson Tigers head to Durham to take on the lowly Duke Blue Devils in an ACC showdown at Wallace Wade Stadium. Clemson is coming off last weekend's 30-17 road win over Maryland, in which the Tigers piled up 249 yards on the ground. That victory came one week after Clemson put up 70 points against Central Michigan. Back in the first week of October the Tigers had lost their second consecutive game, but they've played like a rejuvenated bunch since a mid- October bye week and have catapulted into the national rankings. On tap for Clemson is a pair of key home games against Wake Forest and Boston College, before the Tigers conclude the regular season on the road against South Carolina. Duke, meanwhile, is in the midst of another trying season in Durham, as the Blue Devils' only victory this year was a 20-14 road win over Northwestern back on September 15th. Duke was a 25-6 loser at Florida State last weekend, although head coach Ted Roof was quick to praise his players' effort in that defeat. The Blue Devils will host Georgia Tech next week in their final home game of the season, before wrapping up the schedule on the road at Notre Dame and then at North Carolina. Clemson has won six of the last seven meetings with Duke, running its all-time series record against the Blue Devils to 33-16-1.

Much of the credit for the Tigers' success this season has to go to the defense, but in recent weeks, it has been the offense that has supplied the team's spark. The running back tandem of James Davis and C.J. Spiller accounted for 235 rushing yards and a touchdown in last week's win over Maryland. On the season, Clemson is averaging 34.88 ppg, which leads the ACC. The Tigers have the conference's second-ranked total offense, and they do a nice job balancing the run (168.5 ypg) and pass (265.5 ypg). While it is the ground game that commands much of the attention from opposing defenses, quarterback Cullen Harper has managed to put together a terrific season. The junior gunslinger is completing 65 percent of his passes while averaging 247.8 ypg, and he has tossed 21 touchdowns with only four interceptions. A testament to his big-play ability, Harper has completed 26 passes of more than 20 yards.

In terms of Clemson's defense, there simply aren't many weaknesses which an offense can exploit. When it comes to the passing game, the Tigers defense is air-tight, as they lead the conference in both pass defense (143.67 ypg) and pass efficiency defense. And they've been able to do it despite having the second-fewest sacks in the conference. Linebacker Nick Watkins is the heart and soul of this unit, pacing the team with 77 tackles. Defensive end Phillip Merling has a team-best 11 tackles behind the line of scrimmage, while fellow defensive end Ricky Sapp has eight. Safety Michael Hamlin highlights the secondary with three interceptions, while three other defensive backs have each picked off two. The Tigers started strong last week against Maryland, as a fourth-down stand and a timely interception led to 10 first-half points for the Tigers.

Duke's offense is among the least productive in the nation, as the Blue Devils rank 114th in total offense (289.63 ypg) and 105th in scoring offense (20 ppg). There is only one team in major college football that has rushed for less yards than Duke this season. But where the Blue Devils must be respected is in the passing game, led by quarterback Thaddeus Lewis. Lewis, only a sophomore, perhaps represents a sign of better days to come for the long dormant Blue Devils football program. He is throwing for 226 ypg, and has tossed 17 touchdowns with nine interceptions. Against a speedy Florida State defense last weekend, he threw for 198 yards and a touchdown, and did so despite the complete lack of a running game, which netted only nine yards. When considering the fact that defenses have had absolutely no reason to respect Duke's running game, and can drop extra defenders into coverage, Lewis's accomplishments become magnified.

The Duke defense, on the other hand, continues to be a work in progress. The Blue Devils are young all around, and that has shown up in the form of missed tackles and missed assignments. They are giving up a robust 450 yards and 32.75 points per game, figures that both rank among the bottom tier of FBS teams. Duke is particularly ineffective against the pass, producing little pressure on the quarterback, and few plays in the secondary. The Blue Devils rank last in the ACC in both pass defense and pass efficiency defense, and opposing teams have consistently been able to convert third downs and prolong drives. While Duke gave up plenty of yards last week against Florida State (534), the Blue Devils did not allow that to translate into many points, as the Seminoles settled for four field goals.

While Cullen Harper is enjoying a solid season for Clemson, the formula for a Tigers' victory this year has been simple: control the clock with the run game and keep moving the chains. Under head coach Tommy Bowden, the Tigers are 31-1 when rushing for at least 200 yards. Expect that figure to improve to 32-1 this week.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Clemson 44, Duke 7

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