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Saturday, Oct 6th, 2007

NC State (1-4) at Florida State (3-1)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Doak S. Campbell Stadium (82,300) -- Tallahassee, Florida. Television: ABC. Home Record: NC State 1-3, Florida St. 1-0. Away Record: NC State 0-1, Florida St. 1-1. Neutral Record: NC State 0-0, Florida St. 1-0. Conference Record: NC State 0-2, Florida St. 0-1. Series Record: Florida State leads, 18-9.

GAME NOTES: Having turned their season around with three straight wins, the Florida State Seminoles now turn their attention to the struggling NC State Wolfpack for an ACC bout at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. NC State enters the game reeling from last weekend's 29-10 loss to Louisville. Now at 1-4 on the season, the Wolfpack have yet to notch a victory over an FBS opponent. Adding insult to injury -- or vice-versa -- the team must move on in spite of a growing list of key injuries, which now includes starting quarterback Harrison Beck. As for the Seminoles, they are coming off a 21-14 win over 22nd-ranked Alabama. For a once-dominant Florida State program, it marked the first victory over a ranked opponent in more than a year. FSU is 0-1 in conference play after dropping the season opener to Clemson, but coach Bobby Bowden said this week that confidence is at a peak level with his players right now. The Seminoles hold an 18-9 edge in the head-to-head series, but NC State has won four of the last six meetings.

Beck has already been ruled out of this contest with a separated shoulder. And given that the team is already playing without its starting tight end and tailback, the injury could not come at a worse time for the NC State offense. But the good news is that Daniel Evans, the former starter who was pulled during the opener, played well in place of Beck last weekend. He completed 7- of-11 passes for 68 yards and a score. But as a whole, the Wolfpack need to avoid costly turnovers playing on the road this week. Against Louisville, NC State had three fumbles and two interceptions. Andre Brown ran for 92 yards on 16 carries last week, and he is averaging 5.1 ypc with five touchdowns on the season. But despite his efforts, the Wolfpack are averaging less than 100 rushing yards per game, as they rank 102nd in the nation in that department.

While the Wolfpack have not been able to consistently count on the running game on offense, the defense has also been burnt against the run. NC State ranks third-to-last in the country in run defense, giving up a whopping 247 yards per game. The team is only giving up 179 passing yards per game (third-best in the ACC), but that is mostly due to the fact the opposing coaches prefer to gash the Wolfpack with the run. And while the offense has struggled with turnovers, the defense has not forced enough miscues. Combined, the Wolfpack have a horrendous minus-2.6 turnover margin, the second-to-last such margin in the nation. Linebacker Ernest Jones spearheads the defense with a team-best 47 tackles.

In the Seminoles' win over the Crimson Tide, Xavier Lee threw for 224 yards and two scores, while adding another 59 rushing yards on 11 carries. He entered the game in the second quarter in place of ineffective starter Drew Weatherford, and opened the second half with a 67-yard touchdown drive. Coach Bowden said he likes the mobility element of Lee, who was named the conference's co-offensive back of the week. Lee came on to toss a pair of touchdown passes to De'Cody Fagg, his first two TD grabs of the year. While Lee could provide a spark to the passing game, he will also be counted on to beat defenses with his legs, as the Seminoles rank eighth in the ACC in rushing offense (119.75 ypg). Leading rusher Antone Smith is averaging just 3.6 ypc.

The FSU defense has not yielded many points this season, ranking 18th in the country in scoring defense at 17 ppg. The unit has been particularly stingy against the run, allowing a minuscule 78.25 ypg. Junior linebacker Derek Nicholson leads the defense with 35 tackles. Cornerback Tony Carter has collected the team's only two interceptions on the year, as the Seminoles secondary has struggled to make plays in the secondary. Sophomore defensive end Everette Brown is poised for a breakout year, leading the team with three sacks. As usual, the run defense buckled down against Alabama, holding the Crimson Tide to 89 rushing yards on 3.3 ypc. The defense held Alabama to 6- of-20 on third downs.

The Seminoles haven't been winning in impressive fashion, but they've been winning nonetheless. NC State is really banged up on offense, and that does not bode well for the Wolfpack against a fierce FSU defense. Lee may just be the spark plug that ignites the Seminoles, who should be able to pull out an easy W playing at home in Tallahassee.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Florida State 37, NC State 20

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