GAME NOTES: Seeking redemption following their first loss of the 2007 season, the 21st-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions play their second straight road game when they pull into Champaign for this Saturday's Big Ten bout with the Illinois Fighting Illini. Joe Paterno's Lions had jumped out to a 3-0 start, posting convincing victories over questionable competition in Florida International, Notre Dame and Buffalo. Then came last week's conference opener at Michigan, a team many predicted prior to the start of the season would not only be in line for the Big Ten title, but the national crown as well. The Wolverines, who have had the Lions' number over the years, picked up a hard- fought 14-9 win and JoePa's club was left with its first loss in the last seven games, dating back to last season. Following this contest, PSU returns to Happy Valley for two straight against Iowa and Wisconsin. Illinois is coming off a 27-14 win over Indiana, giving coach Ron Zook's troops their third straight victory and their first conference-opening win since 1993. The Illini are seeking their first Big Ten home-opening win since 2001 and their first over a ranked opponent since that same season. Penn State has complete control of the all-time series with Illinois, logging a 12-2 mark. The Lions are 10-1 against the Illini under Paterno and they have won the last three matchups.
Coming into the season, it was believed that the Penn State offense would either sink or swim depending on the play of QB Anthony Morelli. Well so far the jury is out as to whether the 6-4 senior can lead the Lions to their second Big Ten title in the last three years. He is completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 797 yards with eight TDs and one INT. Morelli can't complain about the weapons Paterno has given him as PSU has one of the top receiving corps around in Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams and Deon Butler, all of whom possess big-play ability. The trio has combined for 41 catches for 442 yards. However, Norwood is the only one to reach paydirt (two TD receptions). The Penn State ground attack boasts a solid if unspectacular one-two punch with Rodney Kinlaw and Austin Scott getting the bulk of the work. Kinlaw leads the club with 313 yards, while Scott has scored five TDs. In last week's loss at Michigan, Morelli was 15-of-31 for 169 yards and Kinlaw picked up 69 yards on 12 carries, but the Lions were held without a TD, instead settling for three Kevin Kelly field goals.
Penn State clearly owns one of the better defensive units in the country this season, as foes are scoring just 12 ppg behind 247.2 ypg of total offense. The Lions came into last week's bout at the Big House giving up a miniscule average of 17.7 rushing ypg, but they bent a bit in yielding 166 yards to the Wolverines, despite allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The effort against the pass resulted in 170 yards for the home team but clearly it wasn't the defense's fault the game wound up in the loss column. Linebacker Sean Lee led the PSU stand with a dozen tackles, while Lydell Sargeant tallied 10 stops. Butkus Award candidate Dan Connor wound up with nine tackles, giving him a team-high 38 on the year. The Lions came up with two turnovers against Michigan and made a staggering 15 TFLs, with Maurice Evans and Ollie Ogbu combining for seven. Through four games, the PSU defense has been credited with an eye- popping 45 TFLs, 19 sacks and 10 turnovers.
Illinois' strength on offense is its ability to run the ball, whether it be between the tackles or out on the edge. The Illini currently rank first in the Big Ten and fifth nationally with 265.5 ypg on the ground. Rashad Mendenhall leads the UI battering ram, averaging 7.0 ypc on his way to 536 yards and seven TDs. When the Illini decide to put the ball in the air, and it's not all that often, it is up to QB Juice Williams to take control. Unfortunately Williams hasn't proven up to the task, completing just 55.7 percent of his throws for 94.2 ypg. He has thrown as many INTs as TDs (three), but has been effective in the run game by accounting for nearly 40 ypg with a pair of scores. In last week's 13-point win over Indiana, Mendenhall hammered the Hoosiers for a career-high 214 yards, besting his previous best of 162 yards which he recorded last year against Penn State.
The Illini's defensive scheme for this week's game against Penn State should be to get after Morelli early and keep the pressure on throughout, daring the Nittany Lion running backs to beat them. With All-American linebacker J Leman leading the way, the UI defense is giving up just 18.5 points and 316.0 total yards per contest this season. Leman is the Big Ten's top tackler with 49 stops, and that figure has him ranked in the top 10 nationally. As a team, the Illini have made 31 stops behind the line of scrimmage, 14 of which have been sacks. Will Davis has done a solid job of getting to the quarterback, collecting 5.5 sacks. Indiana churned out nearly 400 yards of total offense last weekend, but the Illini came up with four turnovers and allowed the Hoosiers to convert just 5-of-15 third down tries. Leman paced the club with 10 tackles and Vontae Davis finished with nine. Will Davis had four sacks, helping the team log 10 TFLs on the day.
If the Nittany Lions can get consistent play from Morelli and continue their dominant ways on defense, they should be able to get back in the win column. That's not to say the Illini won't put up a fight, but Zook's club, while showing signs of improvement, isn't on par with the Big Ten's upper crust just yet.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Penn State 31, Illinois 17
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