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Saturday, Sep 22nd, 2007

(10) Penn State (3-0) at Michigan (2-1)

GAME NOTES: Big Ten heavyweights tee it up in Ann Arbor this Saturday, as the 10th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions tangle with the Michigan Wolverines. Joe Paterno has his Lions off to a 3-0 start, having easily disposed of Florida International (59-0), Notre Dame (31-10) and Buffalo (45-24). Penn State has won six straight games and 25 of its last 30 overall. This is the Lions' first road game of the season and they are kicking off their 15th season in the Big Ten. PSU is 6-8 in Big Ten openers and this is the third straight year that the Nittany Lions are opening conference play on the road. As for Lloyd Carr's Michigan club, it bounced back from consecutive losses to open the year, at home to Appalachian State (34-32) and Oregon (39-7), to blast visiting Notre Dame last weekend in a 38-0 final. The Wolverines have lost just two of their last 39 conference openers, both to Wisconsin, and they have won 31 of their last 33 home games in conference. Michigan owns a 9-3 lead in the all-time series with Penn State, and although many of the games have been hotly contested, the Wolverines have won eight straight in the series. In last year's slugfest in Happy Valley, the Maize and Blue claimed a 17-10 victory.

Balance has been the key to Penn State's success on offense so far this season, as the Lions are averaging 412.3 total ypg in putting up 45.0 ppg. The run has generated 197.0 ypg and the pass another 215.3 ypg. Senior QB Anthony Morelli has been solid in three starts this season, completing 63.2 percent of his throws with eight TDs against just one INT. The talented receiving trio of Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams and Deon Butler have combined for 32 grabs, 356 yards and two scores. Tight end Andrew Quarless has made the most of his two catches thus far, finding the end zone both times (last week against Buffalo), while Terrell Golden has reached paydirt twice on just five receptions. The PSU rushing attack boasts a nice one-two punch in Rodney Kinlaw and Austin Scott, and the two have combined for 474 yards and seven TDs. In last week's win over the Bulls, Morelli had a stellar day in hitting 20-of-27 passes for 202 yards and a career-best four TDs. Butler finished with five catches for 72 yards and moved into a tie for eighth place on the school's all- time receptions list with 94. Kinlaw also had a career day, rushing for 129 yards on 23 carries for his first career 100-yard game.

The Nittany Lions continue to dominate the line of scrimmage on defense, as they lead the nation in stuffing the run (17.7 ypg) and are tied for first in sacks (17). The effort against the run has been astounding when you consider there isn't much star power along the line. The linebacking corps is another story however, as Butkus Award candidate Dan Connor has been a man possessed in the first three games, collecting 29 tackles, 20 of which have been solo efforts. He is tied with Maurice Evans for the team lead in sacks with three, and he gets plenty of help from fellow LB Sean Lee (23 tackles, two sacks). Connor made a game-high 12 stops in the win over Buffalo, as the Lions limited the Bulls to 56 rushing yards on 35 attempts, and they are allowing a mere 0.6 ypc to this point in the season. The Lions are averaging 10 TFLs per outing but have come up with just two INTs despite logging eight turnovers in all.

It took three games but the Michigan offense finally got it going in last week's rout of Notre Dame, shredding the Irish defense for 289 yards on the ground behind another standout performance from senior RB Mike Hart. The Big Ten's leading rusher, Hart has gained 502 yards and scored five TDs to this point in the season. He ran for 187 yards and scored twice against UND, and his elusive running style could give the nation's top run defense some trouble in this contest. Hart needs just under 300 yards to become UM's all-time leading rusher, and the Wolverines are 18-4 when he hits the 100-yard mark. Freshman QB Ryan Mallett, making his first career start last week in place of the injured Chad Henne, went 7-of-15 for 90 yards and three TDs. Michigan's top receivers are Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington, and both have double-digit catches on the season and have combined for five TDs.

The Michigan defense is giving up 363.3 ypg, with foes picking up 161.7 ypg on the ground and another 201.7 ypg via the pass. The Wolverines have allowed just three rushing TDs through three games and have done a nice job getting to the QB, recording 13 sacks. Penn State isn't the only Big Ten team with solid linebackers, as UM's Shawn Crable leads the conference in TFLs with eight, five of which have been sacks. He had two sacks and broke up a pass in last week's easy win over Notre Dame, helping hold the Irish to just 79 total yards, including minus-6 yards rushing. John Thompson and Chris Graham have 21 tackles each this year, and nine different players have logged double-digit stops thus far. Graham had a game-high seven tackles against Notre Dame, 3.5 of which were sacks, and the Wolverines picked up eight QB takedowns on the day. Four turnovers forced also helped UM's cause, although as inept as the Notre Dame offense was it didn't take a whole lot to earn the victory.

Was Michigan that good last week, or are the Irish simply that bad? The argument can be made both ways, but the Wolverines must put that game behind them and maintain their focus as they turn their attention to the always challenging docket of Big Ten games. Penn State is clearly the most talented team UM has faced here in the first month, and while the Wolverines are likely to be fired up to get to .500 on the year, expect the Lions to prevail in what should be another battle in this ultra-competitive series.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Penn State 34, Michigan 24

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